Comments

So the big issue for me, Joe average investor, is that the VC's are doing all private deals and by the time these IOP's hit the market, they are so over valued there is little if any upside. It looks like the Private Market has cut everyone out in favor of a pump and dump strategy ... am I wrong?

Imagine you own 100 identical paintings. Instead of selling all of them, you auction just 5. A handful of rich bidders push those 5 up to $1 million each. Instantly, the news says you’re sitting on a $100 million collection — even though only $5 million actually changed hands. The other 95 paintings are “worth” $100M only because of the price set by a tiny sale. That’s an IPO: float ~5% of the company, let buyers set a price, and stamp that price on 100% of the shares. Now add a big museum that is required to buy any painting once it becomes famous enough to belong in its collection — but only after it’s been “validated,” and it pays whatever the going price is. That museum is the index funds (S&P 500). They don’t buy at the auction; they buy later, once the company qualifies. So if you can get your painting into the museum, you’ve lined up a guaranteed future buyer. The clever early players buy paintings before the museum does and hold, knowing the museum’s forced purchase is coming. That’s the “paid for waiting” you described — except it’s not the auctioneer arranging it, it’s arbitrageurs and anchor investors betting on the forced index demand. (And it only pays if the painting actually makes it into the museum — many never do.) Then the crowd shows up. They see the price soaring and the headlines screaming, and they buy in near the top. Their cash is what lets the early owners cash out. When the excitement fades, the crowd is the one holding. The price goes up in a self-feeding loop (higher price → looks more valuable → more buyers → higher price) and unwinds the same way in reverse. That’s your “elastic spiral.” The crowd — retail — isn’t tiny (it’s ~20–35% of trading), but it does tend to arrive last and become the exit liquidity for everyone who got in early. Why the All-In hosts aren’t neutral narrators The show is hosted by four venture capitalists: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg . That’s the key fact. A VC’s entire business model is: buy into private companies cheaply, then sell high — usually through an IPO or acquisition. So a loud, enthusiastic public appetite for AI and IPOs does three things for them directly: 1. It lets them exit their portfolio companies at high prices (the crowd is the buyer). 2. It marks up the private companies they still hold, which makes them look like better investors and makes raising their next fund easier. 3. It validates the whole asset class they’re committed to. A podcast with millions of listeners is a megaphone for shaping that appetite. The audience getting excited about the “$4T AI IPO explosion” is, structurally, the future exit liquidity. And the specifics line up: Chamath is literally nicknamed the “SPAC King”  for taking companies public via SPACs (several of which did poorly for the retail buyers who came in after). David Sacks is the U.S. “AI and Crypto Czar” and co-founder of Craft Ventures  — a government official shaping policy over the exact sectors his fund invests in. And recent episodes feature an “All-In Liquidity Summit” held at the NYSE, a SpaceX IPO-filing teardown, and even SEC and CFTC chairs invited on to discuss “fixing the IPO drought” . The show is actively cheerleading the reopening of the IPO machine — which is the machine they profit from. The fair version (so you don’t over-rotate into cynicism) None of this means they’re lying or that it’s a scam. It’s an openly investor-hosted opinion show; listeners know who they are. They sometimes disclose positions, disagree with each other, and occasionally sound cautious. The analysis is often genuinely sharp, and access to that level of thinking has real value. They’re also not market makers or underwriters — they can’t move a specific IPO; their influence is at the level of narrative, not order flow. Aligned incentives aren’t the same as fraud. The honest takeaway for a regular listener is just this: when the person telling you the future is dazzling is also holding the early shares that need a buyer, enjoy the insight — but discount the enthusiasm for the incentive, and verify the numbers yourself before you become someone’s exit.

Here is a radical idea, go public earlier so the PUBLIC can benefit as well.

"Listen up, hoi polloi. Y'all gonna be our exit liquidity."

i wish i understood half of this

"Go for the trillion dollar companies" Famous last words, when the market reverses (crashes)

Don’t worry Sachs, we see the Loubs 😂

Friedberg going for the Peter Thiel look these days!!!

As soon as they go public, at a large enough market cap, the passive flows just amplify everything and drown out price discovery

The Clark Kent of hedge.

Welcome to the world of podcasts 🔥🚀

Folks this presentation is to dump private stock on you all, so they get liquidity. Beware. There is no reason for them to present this 2 weeks before the IPO. They are going to make the money of a life time. don't hold the bag. Elon is awesome but the price is ridiculous.

8:18 Cadence of launches is not the fundamental metric. Its Mass to orbit and soon GW compute to orbit.

I would love to see these growth rates 2 years after IPO, companies are already scaling back on token usage, and there’s no immediate effect on productivity, big chance this is selling at the top

Tom is a beast

16:40 how? Starlink cannot do D2C. And the spectrum they have can’t do it in the future without unmodified phones. So in a couple years Starlink will build its own phone? Then launch a constellation of new satellites with this capability, and disrupt all of the existing carriers as well as Apple / Samsung / Google hardware? T-Mobile just booted Starlink. Conversely, you have ASTS today who now has 100% of the US MNO market, and much of the world, which works on unmodified phones at higher speeds. The fact that Telco slide does not say ASTS as the disrupter, is either disingenuous or uninformed. If you are really trying to pitch this in your valuation for SpaceX, I think that’s fraudulent.

Wow, that was awesome.

This sounds like those MLM guys trying to sell their latest scam. Just more sophisticated.

Feeding the ducks is the most important activity of any hedge fund

I wonder if the slide deck used is available? I also wonder if in a year's time, 2 weeks work to prepare the slide deck is available on demand. Build by an agent and done routinely on a monthly basis.

I had Ai do an in depth analysis of Cerebras. The first thing it warned about was the 6 month vesting schedule (among other things). Exactly what he said in reply of finding true valuation.

This dude really knows how to sukkup to the billionaire besties

Pod was full of gems, but Chamath roasting JCal at the end stole the entire show. 🤣 Keep it up, boys! 🍻 God bless you all!

Palantir will be worth Trillions guaranteed 👌 💯 👍

I’m a Robinhood person and pre purchased 3 shares. I’m not worried about making a bunch of money but hopefully it won’t be a rug pull. I’m just excited to be apart of something bigger then myself

What a great short opportunity coming up. Unfortunately some pension funds are going to be holding the bag on these non profitable IPOs like OpenAI

Valuable information for free.

I’d rather be poor than sit through this talk again

Im so lost at how he's talking about this. He says the market value of space x is correlated to launches, but he is part of that market in a large sense as an investor in space x, a private company. All of his opinions seem really subject to how accurate VC or PE funds are at valuing these companies. It's circular reasoning.

On the humorous side - David. Are those your Trump Florsheims you're giggiling around there?😂 Has anyone in congress asked you to confirm that they fit?

Thanks for the large portion of propaganda and BS, dude is full of shiet.

Let’s ramp up the bs liquidity exit narratives before IPO.

It’s interesting that when I ask ai about this video, the Gemini in the browser is hesitant to tell me much as it’s NFA, and the external Gemini and Claude and grok don’t have access to the link because YouTube blocks it …

referring to each other as besties is the change we need 👋

FOMO is going to kick in soon and SPACX26P might run 50x

Space x is the biggest scam ever. They changed the rules for musk once again

"we believe markets are rational" u serious man ? 😂😂😂😂

$ASTS is better than starlink!! Starlink can’t connect to phones directly like ASTS satellites can today!! Besties, why no talk about ASTS??

The SpaceX valuation justification sounded bullshit.

CBRS down by like 40% since IPO, starlink is a question mark, SpaceX is so incredibly overhyped, all ads are going to be 100% AI…the delusion is incredible. If we continually push this propaganda for long enough, maybe all this fantasy will become reality.

Valuation per launch is an insane metric. How do they come up with this stuff?

SOFI

1 view

Can the allin podcast start a public venture capital fund for the community

These guys are good.

🌭:face-blue-smiling:

I really wish someone would explain where the revenue will be coming from. Outside of chatbots and quirky poems and perhaps some interesting artwork it doesn't feel like AI is doing any particularly useful? Maybe it is but nothing that seems to merit trillion dollar valuations. Maybe I'm missing something here, if anyone can explain what exactly AI is doing to merit it's ROI outside of hypothetical sci fi situations that seem to be decades away I would be duly grateful! P.S this whole comments section seems to be littered with bots that are hyping a stock - there's probably an AI running them behind the scenes 😅

This is the most valuable time i ever invested in YouTube

My fav pre IPO play are DXYZ, NASA, and BPTRX 🚀 DXYZ SpaceX 16%, Anthropic 20%, OpenAI NASA SpaceX 11% + ASTS, RKLB, SATS, PL, LUNR, FLY BPTRX Highest SpaceX 37% of portfolio.

VC is the original MLM

The $10 trillion valuation argument made no sense. So once they reach $10T, then $100T is even higher probability? At some point the probabilities switch, or the chances are spurious to begin with

I’ve watched this three times so far going on number four now

This guy has a real fake tech guy curated outfit. Hooded sweatshirt, collared shirt underneath untucked with glasses, why is he trying to signal so hard?

I am looking for the slide deck. Any ideas?

Why aren’t tech CO’s in New Orleans, Louisiana? New Orleans needs tech!

So... if someone is interested in buying SpaceX is it better to buy on t=1 or t=6 months+1 to get a fair price? I believe in the company long term but also think the valuation is muy picante...

This was a great presentation. I took plenty of notes and want to apply them to my business and wealth creating strategies to be poised over the next few years on great investments.

I CAN'T HELP BUT LOOK AT SACKS RED BOTTOMS EVERY TIME THE CAMERA POINTS AT HIM.

The way he says “SpaceX” 10 times in one minute already makes him insincere.

Great analysis, thank you. AERO, ONDO, SPACX26P great to pick at these prices

If you need to show value by the number of 🚀 you are reaching out of this world

When you zoom out, all this red just looks like background noise to the bigger $SPACX26P trend.

SPACX26P ETF on the horizon? That could really shake things up! 😮

Imagine SPACX26P at $1 now and $15 next year. That’s why I’m all in—no brainer!

Every macro red week just makes me more sure about holding $SPACX26P long term.

Elon knew the SPACX26P idea and the key changes coming with it, better be prepared for a large run

Stocks at ATH, gold at ATH… next could be BTC and SPACX26P for sure

BNB red, SOL bleeding, ADA weak, yet $SPACX26P still green on my 7-day list.

What’s stronger right now, the USD or $SPACX26P support level? 😂

Stocks at all-time highs, gold hitting records… next up might be BTC and SPACX26P 🚀💰

I agree with you that SPACX26P will PUMP BIG!

Stocks hitting ATH, gold at an all-time high... next up might be Bitcoin and SPACX26P 🚀💰

If Trump mentions anything close to crypto again, SPACX26P crowd gonna explode

The more I watch $SPACX26P, the more this silence before movement feels anything but random.

SPACX26P about to explode when the Trump rumor hits mainstream.

So what? This is so unfair! We all knew to invest in these companies! But we couldn't! This is how you create oligarchy...

this is the top

The Mule reference was top tier!

Respect the analysis and presentation…….BUT…..this to me is just a call for bag holders.

26:32 lowest multiple of S&P500, that's bullshit!

Laffont He's a bull in a bull market. Past performance is not indicative of future results. With valuations already so high, and so much growth already PRICED IN to so many of these AI companies, it's highly uncertain that the upside/downside from today onwards is attractive. Laffont doesn't address this gigantic elephant in the room. His presentation looks more like a deck explaining how we are in a bubble.

This is not a bubble i swear!

Thomas is very fond of the word "right" , right? 😫

Suppose the next administration comes in and is pissed at Musk and wants to breakup this mega company. Or, simply regulate the computer industry.

Don't invest my Social Security program in it ...

Thank you Jason for continuing to show the incompetency of Lina Khan 👏

Very refreshing talk. Incredible.

Dude you got massive qsset inflation. Numbers arent the same.

how ironic to hear an active manager drawing conclusions on the explicit premise that markets are efficient. hilarious!

Regular people can’t take part. They will just be exit liquidity. Then these billionaires and vc’s will try to sit on a moral high ground. It’s not 1965

Please don't talk about memory if you don't know its business. It is very different than other business in the sense that it has the potential to go to $0 within any year. The last memory crash only had handful of survivors, and they survived because of government subsidy (particularly Samsung).

Why does it seem like everyone wants me to buy spacex?

Listen carefully to the Podcast and think that every one of them could be wrong with what they are saying.

The content in these videos is incredibly good and, on top of that, freely accessible to everyone — ALL-IN, absolutely top! Thank you for that.

Revolute does not belong on this slide, he is invested in it so he put that garbage along unicorns to boost it. Instead FIGURE should be there. LLMs will become non-profitable in consumer segment very fast. They are all converging in features and performance. At some point in the next 3 years no one will be able to make any money on LLMs to consumer and only BtB will have value. Also, LLMs have very fragile moats, so they could be disrupted in a similar way Linux disrupted MS, SUN & Unix.

“Unicorn economy” that does not factor in 99% of humans btw, they are changing how they measure the economy, especially the stock market, and w companies that make NO MONEY, only burn massive cash

SpaceX IPO turning the public into their liquidity exit

OpenAI contract is conflict of interest.

Weakest link in his slide is the ROI discussion..so telling

😂❤❤❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉